AI data center growth could add nearly 20 gigawatts of US gas power

A large buildout, with a narrow forecast

The projected addition would exceed the combined power generation of every US state except Texas, California and Florida. Meanwhile, planned wind-farm capacity has fallen 34% since December 2025.

The shift fits a broader move toward high-emissions power under President Donald Trump, as energy companies abandon cleaner projects, including offshore wind farms, in favor of gas and coal plants. The new forecast puts a number on how AI-related electricity demand could reinforce that turn.

What the forecast leaves out

Environment America’s analysis does not include gas plants that will connect directly to data centers. One example is the 1.2-gigawatt turbine installation for Elon Musk’s data center. The turbines are already polluting the air in Memphis, Tennessee, whose residents are predominantly Black and low-income.

The added capacity from these direct connections is difficult to estimate. But they matter because the forecast’s headline numbers do not capture all the gas infrastructure being built for data-center demand.

Andre Delattre, chief operating officer of The Public Interest Network, told Electrek that data centers’ growing appetite for electricity threatens the country’s transition to clean energy. New gas plants could lock the US into fossil fuels for decades. He said the potential benefits of data centers lose meaning if they come at the cost of destroying the planet.

The missing measure

I think the more important uncertainty is not whether gas capacity will grow, but how much of the buildout sits outside forecasts like this one. The analysis already projects nearly 20 gigawatts of new capacity, while leaving direct-to-data-center plants out. That makes the forecast a floor, not a full accounting.

The US had nearly 1,000 gas power plants in 2022, more than the next nine countries combined. A fresh wave of capacity could add to that dependence just as planned wind projects contract. If direct connections keep spreading, the air-quality costs may grow beyond what the national forecast can show.