The totals do not add up
The report examined three possible combinations involving the University of Western Australia, Curtin University and Murdoch University. For each option, Deloitte calculated low-, medium- and high-cost scenarios.
In the high-cost scenario for merging Curtin and the University of Western Australia, the report lists A$514 million in costs by the first day after a merger and another A$145 million over the following five years. Those figures add up to A$659 million. The report gives A$399 million, a A$260 million discrepancy.
The low-cost scenario for combining all three universities has a different error. It lists A$396 million by the first day and A$116 million over five years, which totals A$512 million. The report instead says A$823 million, a A$311 million difference.
Professor Stephen Bartos, a public-sector management specialist at the University of Canberra, said the errors undermine confidence in the report. He said their number warranted a new report or, at minimum, a manual review and reworking from the beginning, without using AI. Errors in a study of a contentious proposal such as a university merger, he said, discredit the work and should not have been allowed.
The report’s credibility problem
The arithmetic discrepancies add to concerns already raised about the report’s use of generative AI. In early October, media reports said it contained AI-generated references. The state opposition called it “AI slop.” Deloitte disclosed that generative AI had helped gather research, summarise information and proofread the report; the firm had earlier described the errors found as minor.
Guardian Australia found a ChatGPT marker in the metadata of a link to a World Health Organization report, suggesting the reference may have come directly from a chatbot. The report also repeatedly calls Curtin University “Curtin University of Technology,” a name the institution dropped in 2010 and that state law formally changed in 2017.
The state government said it was “extremely disappointed” by the errors, but believes they do not affect the model or the study’s conclusions. It said Deloitte will fix the problems during a review and issue a new report. Available data and new information will be considered in the business case for university reform.
A spokesperson told Guardian Australia that the Department of Energy and Economic Diversification had written to Deloitte demanding it accelerate repayment for the report. Western Australia’s higher education minister, Tony Buti, initially called the errors typos; the following day, he said he was angry and disappointed with Deloitte’s work.
What the report leaves unclear
Professor Christian Downie of the Australian National University’s School of Regulation and Global Governance has studied government submissions containing AI hallucinations. Human error is inevitable, he said, but Deloitte’s broad description of its AI use did not provide enough transparency. The firm should explain in more detail how and when AI was used, particularly if it helped gather data that is now in question.
Bartos said major differences in the cost figures should worry the government: if the calculations do not add up, it could abandon the merger. My view is that the more consequential gap is not just between the figures, but between Deloitte’s general account of AI use and the detail needed to judge how the report was made. Governments, Downie argued, should revisit their consulting contracts to set appropriate incentives and penalties when work is outsourced.
The state has called the merger a once-in-a-generation opportunity. Buti told ABC on Tuesday that he would support it if the business case was convincing, while the final decision rests with the government. Murdoch University opposes the merger. Its vice-chancellor, Professor Andrew Deeks, wrote that it would cost Western Australia time, money and energy, reduce student choice and alienate graduates. He called the report another Deloitte failure and said the state government continued to believe “this nonsense.”
Deloitte did not respond to Guardian Australia’s questions. The government may still consider the merger, but it now has to decide how much confidence to place in a business case Deloitte must first repair.
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